As you surely know by now, White Belt Breakdown launches it’s inaugural DraftKings competition for MMA supremacy and cash. We sincerely hope all of you will come taste a little bit of the humble pie we are baking on Sunday with UFC OKC. It is a well known fact that I, Randytron, am nothing short of an MMA God. Our contest is one of those instances where God will taketh, but I am very much a gracious God and will giveth you all the line up for success outside of our group.
To breakdown the scoring for those unfamiliar with DraftKings MMA, points are accumulated as follows:
DraftKings is unique in that due to the budget provided, you can’t simply rely on picking winners. It is inevitable you are going to pick a loser. My strategy is to pick winners that finish or have high striking out put. When looking at those I feel may lose, I like a high striking output but more importantly a high takedown rate. Takedowns are lucrative at 5 points plus likely come with a number of Advances for 3 points a piece. You win DraftKings contests on the quality of your losing fighters. So without further adieu, here is the money card and a brief explanation of each pick ranked by confidence:
1. Dominick Reyes $9,300
Reyes is the most expensive option, but he’s worth it. There isn’t much info available on FightMetric regarding Reyes as this is his UFC Debut, but the man is a killing machine. Reyes is 6-0, a -400 favorite, and riding a 3 fight streak of first round KO’s. Christensen is old, overmatched, and 1-2 in his last 3. Look for a highlight reel KO in round 1 to cash in.
2. Justine Kish $7,900
Women’s MMA isn’t good for much other than DraftKings consistency. This fight is an even matchup but I believe Kish will get the nod. I envision there will be 3 full rounds of scoring and Kish has a tremendous output at 4.10 Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM). Add into this she averages 2.0 Takedowns per 15 minutes and she’s highly likely to put up a good number.
3. Michel Quinones $8,100
Another UFC Debut without FightMetrics to examine, and listed as a slight underdog to Jared Gordon. So why Quinones? In my opinion oddsmakers have this one wrong. Quinones is the much more dangerous of the two fighters with 4 of his last 5 victories coming by first round stoppage. I see Quinones continuing the streak of finishes.
4. Tim Means $9,000
Means is a -230 favorite over opponent Alex Garcia. Means has a 5 inch height advantage and a 3 inch reach advantage. Tim’s SLpM output is exceptional at 4.18 and he should use his physical advantages to score from the outside. This selection scares me slightly if Garcia uses his 4.71 Takedown average to bring the fight to the ground, but my gut says Means handles him well and scores for 3 long rounds.
5. Johny Hendricks $8,500
Although I can easily see Boetsch winning this fight, Henricks is the safer DraftKings play. Hendricks has an average of 3.51 SLpM and although he doesn’t utilize wrestling as much as in the past he still holds a 4.01 Takedown average. Although I have predicted Boetsch by decision all week, Big Rig is the play. There is a chance Hendricks could stop Boetsch, but no chance of Hendricks being stopped inside the distance.
6. Alex Garcia $7,200
I ranked Garcia 8th overall for this card, behind #6 Horscher and #7 Herrig but I didn’t have the funds left for either. As I mentioned, you are going to be forced to pick someone you see losing. Garcia can score a few takedowns no matter what the outcome of the fight is with his high Takedown average. In his decision win over the much taller Mike Swick, he landed 5 of 5 takedowns and advanced 5 times. He should score some points vs. Means and it serves as insurance in case Means has an off night.
There you have it, once again I provide you guaranteed profits at no cost. Enjoy this while it lasts because soon enough I will need to start charging.